// inference
How we decide something might be a fire
This system does not confirm wildfires. It identifies conditions that, taken together, are statistically inconsistent with normal behaviour for a given location on a given day. The alert is the output of that comparison.
01 — signal quality
Quality of the signal
Every hotspot record from VIIRS and MODIS carries two quality indicators: a confidence score between 0 and 100, and a fire radiative power value in megawatts. Confidence reflects how certain the instrument is that the reading is a genuine thermal anomaly rather than sensor noise or cloud interference. Radiative power reflects the intensity of heat at the surface. High confidence combined with high radiative power is a strong indicator. Low confidence readings are included in the model but weighted down proportionally.
confidence score 0–100 fire radiative power (MW) 02 — baseline deviation
Today versus recent history
The most diagnostic feature in the model is not the raw hotspot count. It is the ratio of today's count to the rolling 7-day average for that cell. A cell that normally shows 2 hotspots per day and shows 18 today has a ratio of 9. A cell that normally shows 15 and shows 18 has a ratio of 1.2. The absolute numbers are similar. The deviation from baseline is not. This ratio is what separates a genuinely unusual day from a cell that is simply active by nature.
rolling 7-day avg today ÷ baseline ratio 03 — spatial coherence
Why neighbours matter
A single anomalous cell is weak evidence. Before an alert is generated, the system checks whether surrounding H3 cells are also showing elevated anomaly scores. A wildfire spreads across area. A sensor artefact or isolated industrial heat source does not. Spatial clustering across adjacent cells is the final corroborating signal. Flagged cell-days with no supporting signal in their neighbours are filtered out before ranking.
H3 neighbour scoring coherence filter 04 — alert output
What the alert tells you
The output is a ranked signal, not a confirmation. A high-ranked alert means multiple independent indicators — the satellite reading, the deviation from baseline, and the spatial pattern across neighbouring cells — are all pointing in the same direction. The further down the ranked list, the thinner that supporting evidence becomes. Ground verification is still required. The system's job is to tell you where to look first.
ranked signal not a confirmation